Today I will present my third report on the global Nemesis statistics for Warhammer Underworld. Just after the completion of this article, the new edition of the game (Embergard) was announced and we now also got a preview of the actual gameplay. This provides an interesting moment for analysis: What is the final metagame of the first edition before official support ends? It has already been confirmed that the World Championship of Warhammer will use the new rules. However, I would like to conduct a thought experiment: What would a first edition World Champion have played in Atlanta? (Whenever I talk about the World Championship in this article, I am referring to this thought experiment!) I’ll tease my findings: Hungering Parasite has made us eternally hangry, but first edition players will continue to search for a cure! Finally, I’ll also reflect on the changes following the new edition in light of the data.
This is my first contribution to Path to Glory, and I would like to thank Aman, George, and Mark for getting me involved. A few words about myself: I’m Borni, a tournament organizer and now wannabe data scientist from Stuttgart, Germany.
#newunderworlds – What is the status of the project with regard to the new edition?
I updated all resources for the second edition and if you have access to a copy already, you can get started right away. This is a great opportunity to build a history of all the #newunderworlds games ever played.
Please continue to submit 1st edition games and event data – the necessary resources are still available. This version of the game is still being played and is stable. We are given the opportunity to fully grasp its meta.
About the Statistics Project and Its Data
Your games count! This data wasn’t just given to the community – volunteers around the world submitted game records to the statistics themselves. Please consider submitting your individual games and events – it is really easy!
- The Form
- General Information
- Information for Event Organizers
Sample & Subsets:
A sample is a collection of entities for which you have data compared to the entire collective (e.g. people you have surveyed that are representative of a nation’s population). So in our case, the smaller collection of games whose records were submitted to the project compared to all Underworlds games worldwide. Our sample may not be representative of the whole. A subset is a part of the sample that shares a certain characteristic, such as the type of event the games were part of, or the time period. Today, we will look at the following subsets of our total sample:
- S1 (2252 games): This is the full sample of the project. The cutoff date was October 3, 2024. Data collection began around April 2024, near the time of the FAQ/Errata update that included nerfs to Force of Frost and Ephilim’s Pandaemonium.
- S2 (578 games): All games except World Qualifier (TW) events played after the last game update (FAQ/Errata August 2024).
- TW2 (446 games): All TW games played after the update.
- S3 (1024 games): All games played after the the update.
Recorded Event Data
- 20 events in total
- 3 leagues
- 17 tournaments
- 8 World Qualifier events (called TW)
- Average number of players in all tournaments: 13
- Average number of players TW: 17
As you can see, most events aren’t included in the statistics. You can change this by submitting your event data, which is greatly appreciated!
Resources:
- Sample as of October 3, 2024 (you are able to apply filters yourself!)
- Comparative Analysis (look at all tables in detail and high-res!)
- Spreadsheet Containing the Overall Statistics
The Overall Metagame (S1)
Warband Statistics
Warband Distribution
Disclaimer: I use the second quartile (or median) of games played per warband/deck as a guideline for whether to include it in the rankings. Here it is 51, which means that 50% of the warbands have been played less than 51 games. I use this as a baseline for selection: A warband with a decent representation has been played at least 51 times, and if it has been played less than that, the data is considered insufficient.
Top 8: Games Played
| Hexbane’s Hunters | 298 | 53 % |
| Hedkrakka’s Madmob | 233 | 53 % |
| The Crimson Court | 230 | 60 % |
| The Headsmen’s Curse | 194 | 52 % |
| Cyreni’s Razors | 182 | 51 % |
| Domitan’s Stormcoven | 168 | 49 % |
| The Skinnerkin | 159 | 47 % |
| The Thricefold Discord | 157 | 52 % |
Top 8: Win Rate
| Skittershank’s Clawpack | 125 | 67 % |
| Ephilim’s Pandaemonium | 76 | 62 % |
| The Crimson Court ⭐ | 230 | 60 % |
| Rippa’s Snarlfangs | 124 | 60 % |
| Drepur’s Wraithcreepers | 129 | 56 % |
| Gryselle’s Arenai | 117 | 54 % |
| Lady Harrow’s Mournflight | 112 | 54 % |
| Hexbane’s Hunters ⭐ | 298 | 53 % |
⭐ emoji = included in both Top 8 rankings.
Interpretation:
- Hexbane’s Hunters and Hedkrakka’s Madmob have basically the same win rate, so the orcs could also be included in the Top 8 by win rate.
- The most popular warbands are a little bit more modern, while the Top 8 by win rate only includes two truly modern ones: Ephilim’s Pandaemonium and Gryselle’s Arenai.
- The huge success of Skittershank’s Clawpack is surprising, as is Gryselle’s Arenai. I think both are one-trick ponies whose success is tied to two specific decks: Hungering Parasite and Breakneck Slaughter. While the latter has been nerfed, the former is still going strong. I would see the rats as sort of gatekeepers for leader-centric warbands, and the Arenai are still a dangerous dice casino that can just blow you off the board.
- Ephilim is probably underrated after the nerfs, the faction is still really really strong.
- The rest of the field consists of the “statball” evergreens, like Rippa, and the passive glory champions, Mournflight.
Deck Statistics
Deck Distribution
Top 4: Games Played
| Hungering Parasite | 664 | 56 % |
| Rimewyrm’s Bite | 547 | 50 % |
| Breakneck Slaughter | 525 | 52 % |
| Rimelocked Relics | 512 | 46 % |
Top 4: Win Rate
| Hungering Parasite ⭐ | 664 | 56 % |
| Tooth and Claw | 427 | 56 % |
| Toxic Terrors | 161 | 56 % |
| Breakneck Slaughter ⭐ | 525 | 52 % |
Interpretation
- Across the entire sample, Underworlds is still firmly in the Parasite meta (as discussed in a recent podcast episode). The deck is truly exceptional: It has the highest pick and win rate.
- Flexible and control-oriented play styles are popular.
- However, aggressive decks are the most successful.
- Breakneck is still nothing to sneeze at.
NEW: Deck Matchups (S1)
The table should be read from left to top right: You choose a deck whose performance you want to evaluate (left column) and then look at the different matchups (top row).
Interpretation
- Tooth and Claw and Breakneck Slaughter are the strongest against Hungering Parasite.
- Rimelocked Relics suffers against the Parasite, the Bite, Breakneck and Toxic Terrors. On the other hand, it is good against Malevolent Masks.
- Tooth and Claw is strong against everything.
- Rimewyrm’s Bite is good against everything except Parasite.
Comparison: Games After Recent Update Except World Qualifiers (S2) ↔︎ World Qualifiers After the Update (TW2)
Warband Statistics
Disclaimer: The second quartile / median was used as a filter for inclusion in the ranking.
Top 8: Win Rate (S2)
| Skittershank’s Clawpack | 74 | 67 % |
| The Crimson Court | 62 | 62 % |
| Drepur’s Wraithcreepers | 27 | 60 % |
| Zarbag’s Gitz | 26 | 60 % |
| Cyreni’s Razors | 59 | 56 % |
| Gnarlspirit Pack | 42 | 54 % |
| The Headsmen’s Curse | 55 | 54 % |
| The Farstriders | 32 | 53 % |
Top 8: Win Rate (TW2)
| Ephilim’s Pandaemonium | 18 | 67 % |
| The Thricefold Discord | 57 | 65 % |
| Rippa’s Snarlfangs ⭐ | 27 | 63 % |
| Gnarlspirit Pack ⭐ | 31 | 61 % |
| Elathain’s Soulraid | 18 | 61 % |
| Drepur’s Wraithcreepers ⭐ | 47 | 57 % |
| Zondara’s Gravebreakers | 26 | 54 % |
| The Crimson Court ⭐ | 63 | 52 % |
Interpretation
- Exceptional fighter profiles from past seasons and aggressive play styles dominate the current meta.
- Again, Ephilim seems underrated. The question is whether they can survive the Parasite onslaught with their default pairings of Seismic Shock and Force of Frost.
- The Thricefold Discord paired with Rimewyrm’s Bite seems really strong to me, especially in a Hungering meta (Perfect Blade, looking at you).
- Skittershank’ popularity is low in the TW2 subset, so it is not included. There is a lot of potential though. I’m just not sure you’re going to win the World Championship with them. They seem more like gatekeepers and are very predictable.
- Aside from Ephilim and Hexbane, horde warbands are dead in the most competitive meta. And those two factions only work because they lack most of the disadvantages hordes typically suffer from.
Deck Statistics
Disclaimer: The second quartile was used as a prerequisite for the ranking.
Top 4: Win Rate (S2)
| Hungering Parasite | 208 | 67 % |
| Voidcursed Thralls | 109 | 49 % |
| Tooth and Claw | 101 | 48 % |
| Rimelocked Relics | 154 | 47 % |
Top 4: Win Rate (TW2)
| Tooth and Claw ⭐ | 67 | 60 % |
| Rimewyrm’s Bite | 90 | 54 % |
| Hungering Parasite ⭐ | 145 | 50 % |
| Voidcursed Thralls ⭐ | 138 | 48 % |
Interpretation:
- The Parasite performs worse in World Qualifiers.
- On the other hand, Rimewyrm’s Bite and Tooth and Claw do much better.
- Overall, I don’t think the Parasite would have won the World Championship, but the deck would have blocked the path to the top.
- Malevolent Masks wasn’t included due to a smaller number of games, but could also be a strong contender.
- Voidcursed Thralls, especially when paired with Hexbane, is still a strong deck. It also offers great mobility, which is useful for avoiding the Parasite.
- You still have to watch out for the ping meta!
Warband-Deck Statistics (S1 & S3)
These tables show the win rates of warband-deck combinations. I won’t offer any interpretation here, but this data is key to linking the warband to the deck stats and identifying the strongest pairings.
Entire Sample (S1)
All Games After the Update (S3)
Thought Experiment: Predictions for a 1st Edition World Championship 2024
We would likely have seen the usual older top dogs (Rippa, Crimson Court, Madmob, Creepers) and their modern counterparts (Hexbane, Gnarlspirit Pack, Stormcoven). Hungering Parasite, Tooth and Claw, and the remnants of Breakneck Slaughter would have clogged the midfield and kept out less dominant pairings. However, I don’t think Parasite would have won. Instead, I would have bet on more control-oriented pairings like Lady Harrow’s Mournflight with Malevolent Masks or The Thricefold Discord with Rimewyrm’s Bite to win the event. There is also the possibility that last year’s champion could have just pinged and smashed his way back to the top: Domitan with Force of Frost. I just saw them do really well at the Golden Ticket event in Stuttgart, and despite the nerf to the deck, the overall power remains the same. Ephilim’s Pandaemonium is overlooked. I’m not sure they’re as strong as Stormcoven because they rely so much on the leader, and Seismic Shock is in a worse place than it was a year ago. But people may not have seen Tzeentch’s return coming.
Conclusion: Saying Goodbye to the Last Official Meta of the 1St Edition – and Its Problems
As our beloved and seasoned version of the game drifts into the infinite horizon, we can make an interim conclusion to its metagame in 2024. Of course, people may choose to play the final iteration of this edition in the future, so the game isn’t finished yet.
This is a table of the Top 12 warbands in the entire sample, sorted by a kind of weighted win rate I call a Meta Score. It combines popularity and success. Looking at this ranking, only 6 warbands are “modern” releases since Gnarlwood. And some of them are out of print anyway. This means that the majority of the top performing warbands have been unavailable to new players for a long time, while still shaping the Underworlds meta. Old warbands like Crimson Court and Madmob received very little balancing tweaks and included mechanics that weren’t otherwise present in the Nemesis format. Of course, longtime players and new players who have just acquired these old warbands love their toys – I get it. However, the new edition brings with it a much-needed shake-up. For now, at least, the old “statballs” brute-forcing their way to the top are gone. Of course, the new second edition might not actually change the fighter profiles of the old top-performers – but they might not be tournament legal anymore (only a small subset of first edition warbands will be. And if they are, Games Workshop has assured players that they will be stocked and are thus available to all.
If you like what you saw, please share this post with your network and be sure to submit your game data. This report was hard work, so I would be pleased to receive a lot of views as well as comments. You can discuss the article in the #statistics-discussions forum channel on the WHU Vassal Discord server.
I would like to thank all the volunteers who gave their time and energy to submit the data on which this analysis is based. I am always looking for volunteers to enter data. If you are an event organizer, please consider submitting your events to this project (contact me anytime). You can find all relevant information at the top of this post and on the Discord server, where I also created a post regarding data entry volunteering (inside the #statistics-discussions forum channel).
You’ll hear from me when the roadmap – and especially the formats – for the new edition become clear!
